Should you lock your bike (which you love and is worth $400) up when grabbing a coffee and donut on you way to work?

No!

The locking and unlocking will cumulatively take you 6 hours a year (assuming you’re a workaholic who loves donuts). The chances that your un-locked bike gets stolen in broad daylight the five minutes you are in the store is maybe, maybe, 1 in 1,000. That means that your bike gets stolen once every 3 years. That’s $150 a year you are spending for 6 hours of your life. It’s not worth it.

We need to gamble in life! This is a positive expected value bet with minimal downside risk. Bonus: You get to live in the world as you would like it to exists…. Denmark…. just joking.